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This study found that serious bacterial infections remain infrequent even without antibiotic treatment and identified risk strata in which antibiotic prescribing can be more safely reduced.

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Martin C Gulliford 1,2,*, Judith Charlton 1, Olga Boiko 1, Joanne R Winter 1,2, Emma Rezel-Potts 1,2, Xiaohui Sun 1, Caroline Burgess 1, Lisa McDermott 1, Catey Bunce 1,2, James Shearer 1, Vasa Curcin 1, Robin Fox 3, Alastair D Hay 4, Paul Little 5, Michael V Moore 5, Mark Ashworth 1

1 School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King’s College London, London, UK
2 National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
3 Bicester Health Centre, Bicester, UK
4 Centre for Academic Primary Care, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
5 Primary Care Research Group, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
* Corresponding author Email: martin.gulliford@kcl.ac.uk

Declared competing interests of authors: Michael V Moore reports grants from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) during the conduct of the study (awards 13/88/13 and 09/127/19). Paul Little was a board member for the NIHR School for Primary Care Research and was the programme director of the NIHR Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and a member of the NIHR Journals Library Editorial Group from September 2012 to September 2018.

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